ATL @ TB - Propedia

SPREAD

TB -2.5

ATL +2.5 · DraftKings

TOTAL

46.5

Over / Under

MONEYLINE

TB -135

ATL +114

MODEL

Sim projects ATL 25.5 - TB 20.0 - ATL wins it 65% of sims. The model disagrees with the market, which favors TB.

MONEY

The moneyline money is split from the tickets: 60% of moneyline money is on ATL - on just 43% of tickets.

RECORD

TB is 0-2-0 ATS as a home favorite in 2026 (6-12-0 in the role since 2023); ATL is 2-1-0 ATS as an away underdog in 2026 (6-6-0 in the role since 2023).

Where the money is · one bar, tickets vs money

Spread · TB -2.5

ATL 69%

TB 31%

TICKETS

ATL 83%

TB 17%

MONEY

Total · 46.5

OVER 64%

UNDER 36%

TICKETS

OVER 73%

UNDER 27%

MONEY

Moneyline

ATL 43%

TB 57%

TICKETS

ATL 60%

TB 40%

MONEY

Key injuries

Atlanta Falcons

Bijan RobinsonRBACTIVE

Drake LondonWRACTIVE

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jalon DanielsQBACTIVE

Bucky IrvingRBACTIVE

Cade OttonTEACTIVE

Top props in this game · model edge

Jalon Daniels QB · TB

Over 42.5 rush yds

Over in 1/7 games (avg 17.6)

84%

MODEL

Bucky Irving RB · TB

Over 70.5 rush yds

Over in 3/7 games (avg 79.7) - ATL allows 76.2 rush yards a game to RBs (#4)

70%

MODEL

Bijan Robinson RB · ATL

Over 83.5 rush yds

Over in 3/7 games (avg 100.6) - TB allows 70.3 rush yards a game to RBs (#2)

68%

MODEL

Drake London WR · ATL

Over 77.5 rec yds

Over in 3/7 games (avg 88.0) - TB allows 124.2 receiving yards a game to WRs (#6)

67%

MODEL

No player on this page is out, so nobody had to be excluded from this strip.

Situational records · ATS

ATL · away underdog today

ATS - all games (2026)	3-4-0
ATS - as away underdog (2026)	2-1-0
ATS - as away underdog ('23-'25)	6-6-0
Totals - over/under (2026)	4-3-0

TB · home favorite today

ATS - all games (2026)	2-5-0
ATS - as home favorite (2026)	0-2-0
ATS - as home favorite ('23-'25)	6-12-0
Totals - over/under (2026)	4-3-0

Matchup edges · 2026 season ranks

ATL ball vs TB defense

The crack: 64.6 TE yards a game (#27) and 234.5 QB yards a game (#19).

The wall: 70.3 rush yards a game (#2) and 124.2 WR yards a game (#6).

TB ball vs ATL defense

The crack: 171.7 WR yards a game (#28) and 250.1 QB yards a game (#26).

The wall: 76.2 rush yards a game (#4) and 52.5 TE yards a game (#19).

Line: DraftKings via ESPN · Splits: Action Network · Records: TeamRankings (2026 season + 2023-2025 sums; All Games rows include playoffs) · Model: 10,000-game simulation · Injuries: Tuesday report

QB1

Michael Penix

ATL · Pass 225→213 ↓ 5%

ACTIVE

Injury: — Penix made his season debut in Week 3 — his first game since Week 11 of last season — and led Atlanta to its first win, starting "sluggishly" before finding rhythm to finish 256 yards and a TD. He has now taken over as the starter with Cooper Rush as backup. Pass attempts 0 → 0 → 25 → 20. First game since Week 11 of 2025; Cooper Rush started W1–W2 (Rush still Active as backup).

Pass yds

MARKET

2/5

W1-W6 OVER

228.5

LINE

231.4 (5g)

2026 AVG

53%

EDGE

Pass INT

MARKET

1/5

W1-W6 OVER

0.5

LINE

4▼ straight

0.2 (5g)

2026 AVG

55%

EDGE

Anytime TD

MARKET

TDS/GAMES

—

MODEL

2026 TD

EDGE

RB1

Bijan Robinson

ATL · Rush 61→63 ↑ 3%

ACTIVE

Injury: — Bijan was every bit as dominant as his line suggests in Week 3 — 194 yards and 2 TDs on a season-high 29 carries. His rushing role is growing (29 carries vs 16-21 before) even as receiving work dipped. Historically he has been up-and-down vs New Orleans (33 yards in the last home meeting, 116+2 TDs in 2024). Carries 21 → 16 → 29 → 19.Rush yds: 83 → 72 → 194 → 145.Targets 10 → 4 → 2 → 2 (down, but rushing exploded).

Rush yds

MARKET

3/7

W1-W6 OVER

83.5

LINE

100.6 (7g)

2026 AVG

68%

EDGE

Rec yds

MARKET

3/7

W1-W6 OVER

25.5

LINE

29.0 (7g)

2026 AVG

55%

EDGE

Anytime TD

MARKET

3/7

TDS/GAMES

40%

MODEL

3/7

2026 TD

EDGE

WR1

Drake London

ATL · Rec 62→66 ↑ 6%

ACTIVE

Injury: — London exploded in Week 3 with Penix — 9 catches for 194 yards on 10 targets, by far his best game of 2026. His target share doubled from Weeks 1-2. He has produced against New Orleans before (8/97 in 2024, TD in 2025 W18) though he was blanked in the 2025 W12 box score. Targets 5 → 5 → 10 → 6 (doubled).Rec yds: 29 → 51 → 194 → 96.

Rec yds

MARKET

3/7

W1-W6 OVER

77.5

LINE

88.0 (7g)

2026 AVG

67%

EDGE

Anytime TD

MARKET

1/7

TDS/GAMES

27%

MODEL

1/7

2026 TD

EDGE

QB1

Jalon Daniels

TB · Pass 164→0 ↓ 100%

ACTIVE

Injury: — Has not started a game in 2026 — Baker Mayfield has taken every start (28 → 34 → 34 attempts) and Daniels' only action was 3 mop-up attempts and an INT in W3. There is effectively no 2026 sample to evaluate. pass attempts DNP → DNP → 3.

Pass yds

MARKET

1/7

W1-W6 OVER

185.5

LINE

71.6 (7g)

2026 AVG

76%

EDGE

Pass TD

MARKET

0/7

W1-W6 OVER

1.5

LINE

7▼ straight

0.4 (7g)

2026 AVG

51%

EDGE

Rush yds

MARKET

1/7

W1-W6 OVER

42.5

LINE

3▼ straight

17.6 (7g)

2026 AVG

84%

EDGE

Anytime TD

MARKET

TDS/GAMES

—

MODEL

2026 TD

EDGE

RB1

Bucky Irving

TB · Rush 46→106 ↑ 130%

ACTIVE

Injury: — Held to 46 yards on 15 carries in W3 after an 89-yard W2, and he hasn't scored since his W1 TD. His receiving role has shrunk from 7 targets in W1 to 4 in each of the last two weeks. carries 8 → 17 → 15 → 16;targets 7 → 4 → 4 → 0.

Rush yds

MARKET

3/7

W1-W6 OVER

70.5

LINE

79.7 (7g)

2026 AVG

70%

EDGE

Rec

MARKET

2/7

W1-W6 OVER

2.5

LINE

5▼ straight

2.6 (7g)

2026 AVG

52%

EDGE

Rec yds

MARKET

1/7

W1-W6 OVER

LINE

6▼ straight

11.1 (7g)

2026 AVG

62%

EDGE

Anytime TD

MARKET

1/7

TDS/GAMES

24%

MODEL

1/7

2026 TD

EDGE

WR1

Chris Godwin

TB · Rec 37→27 ↓ 27%

ACTIVE

Injury: — Another quiet week (3/25) — he hasn't topped 46 yards in any game this season and remains scoreless. That stands in sharp contrast to his last meeting with Green Bay: 10 catches for 155 yards in 2023. targets 4 → 3 → 4 → 7.

Rec yds

MARKET

4/7

W1-W6 OVER

LINE

34.7 (7g)

2026 AVG

61%

EDGE

Rec

MARKET

3/7

W1-W6 OVER

3.5

LINE

3.0 (7g)

2026 AVG

65%

EDGE

Anytime TD

MARKET

0/7

TDS/GAMES

17%

MODEL

0/7

2026 TD

EDGE

TE1

Cade Otton

TB · Rec 4→0 ↓ 100%

ACTIVE

Injury: — Set a season high with 56 yards in W3 on steady usage (5–6 targets each week). He remains scoreless in 2026 and has yet to top 3 catches in a game. targets 5 → 6 → 6 → 6.

Rec yds

MARKET

3/7

W1-W6 OVER

29.5

LINE

3▼ straight

26.6 (7g)

2026 AVG

54%

EDGE

Rec

MARKET

1/7

W1-W6 OVER

3.5

LINE

5▼ straight

2.1 (7g)

2026 AVG

50%

EDGE

Anytime TD

MARKET

0/7

TDS/GAMES

21%

MODEL

0/7

2026 TD

EDGE