Where the money is · one bar, tickets vs money
Spread · GB -3.5
TICKETS
MONEY
No split personality on the spread - tickets and money both sit on Green Bay at matching 69%. The one divergence is the moneyline, where Carolina's money share (38%) is more than double its ticket share (16%), and the total, where money leans Under a touch more than tickets (57% vs 54%).
Key injuries
Carolina
Bryce YoungQBACTIVE
Chuba HubbardRBACTIVE
Tetairoa McMillanWRACTIVE
No notable outsFull skill group available—
Green Bay
Matthew GoldenWR · shoulder/foot, no practice Monday (estimate)ACTIVE
Jordan LoveQBACTIVE
Christian WatsonWRQUES
Tucker KraftTEACTIVE
Top props in this game · model edge
Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR
Over 15 receiving yards
Averages 18.7 receiving yards a game, and Green Bay is the league's second-softest RB matchup (blend #31)
Jordan Love QB · GB
Over 1.5 pass TDs
Over in 6 of 7 games (avg 1.9) - the model backs the trend even into a stingy Carolina pass-TD defense (1.21 a game, #6)
Matthew Golden WR · GB
Over 4.5 receptions
Over in 5 of 7 games (avg 5.1) - but he is questionable (shoulder/foot), check his status Thursday
Christian Watson WR · GB
Over 4.5 receptions
Over in 4 of 7 games (avg 4.9) against a mid-pack Carolina WR defense (blend #16)
No Carolina or Green Bay player on this page is out, so nobody had to be excluded from this strip.
Situational records · ATS
CAR · away underdog today
| ATS - all games (2026) | 3-3-0 |
| ATS - as away underdog (2026) | — |
| ATS - as away underdog ('23-'25) | 8-15-1 |
GB · home favorite today
| ATS - all games (2026) | 4-3-0 |
| ATS - as home favorite (2026) | 0-1-0 |
| ATS - as home favorite ('23-'25) | 10-7-0 |
Matchup edges · 2026 season ranks
CAR ball vs GB defense
The crack is the run: Green Bay allows 110.0 rush yards a game (#30) and a league-worst 1.26 rush TDs a game to running backs - the second-softest RB matchup in the league (blend #31).
The wall is the pass: just 203.2 QB yards a game (#5) and 38.1 TE yards a game (#3). Young's 250.5 line sits well above what this defense usually gives.
GB ball vs CAR defense
The softest run defense on either side: Carolina allows 114.1 rush yards a game (#32, softest in the league) and leaks 1.0 receiving TD a game to wide receivers (#31).
But Carolina defends the pass TD well: 1.21 a game (#6) on a mid-pack 228.4 QB yards a game (#16) - Love's yardage has room, his TDs have to earn it.
