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CHI
CHI
Mon Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET
Lumen Field
SEA
SEA
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LAST 5
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LAST 5
W
L
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Market & Matchup
SPREAD
SEA -3.5
CHI +3.5 · DraftKings
TOTAL
46.5
Over / Under
MONEYLINE
SEA -170
CHI +142
MODEL
Sim projects CHI 25.2 - SEA 20.3 - CHI wins it 63% of sims. The model disagrees with the market, which favors SEA.
MONEY
The moneyline money is split from the tickets: 53% of moneyline money is on CHI - on just 20% of tickets.
RECORD
SEA is 1-1-2 ATS as a home favorite in 2026 (9-8-1 in the role since 2023); CHI has not been a away underdog yet in 2026 (10-14-1 in the role since 2023).
Where the money is · one bar, tickets vs money
Spread · SEA -3.5
CHI 62%
SEA 38%
TICKETS
CHI 75%
SEA 25%
MONEY
Total · 46.5
OVER 68%
UNDER 32%
TICKETS
OVER 77%
UNDER 23%
MONEY
Moneyline
CHI 20%
SEA 80%
TICKETS
CHI 53%
SEA 47%
MONEY
Key injuries
Chicago Bears
Luther Burden IIIWRACTIVE
Rome OdunzeWRACTIVE
Colston LovelandTEQUES
Seattle Seahawks
Rashid ShaheedWR · Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald said Monday that the early retQUES
Sam DarnoldQBACTIVE
Cooper KuppWRACTIVE
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRACTIVE
Top props in this game · model edge
Sam Darnold QB · SEA
Over 240.5 pass yds
Over in 3/6 games (avg 215.0) - CHI allows 214.7 pass yards a game to QBs (#9)
68%
MODEL
Colston Loveland TE · CHI
Over 44.5 rec yds
Over in 3/7 games (avg 34.9) - SEA allows 44.9 receiving yards a game to TEs (#13)
66%
MODEL
Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA
Over 25.5 rec yds
Over in 2/7 games (avg 23.3) - CHI allows 142.7 receiving yards a game to WRs (#17)
66%
MODEL
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI
Over 20.5 rec yds
Over in 3/7 games (avg 21.7)
64%
MODEL
No player on this page is out, so nobody had to be excluded from this strip.
Situational records · ATS
CHI · away underdog today
ATS - all games (2026)5-2-0
ATS - as away underdog (2026)—
ATS - as away underdog ('23-'25)10-14-1
Totals - over/under (2026)3-4-0
SEA · home favorite today
ATS - all games (2026)2-3-2
ATS - as home favorite (2026)1-1-2
ATS - as home favorite ('23-'25)9-8-1
Totals - over/under (2026)3-4-0
Matchup edges · 2026 season ranks
CHI ball vs SEA defense

The crack: 44.9 TE yards a game (#13) and 78.5 rush yards a game (#6).

The wall: 182.8 QB yards a game (#1) and 103.0 WR yards a game (#1).

SEA ball vs CHI defense

The crack: 95.6 rush yards a game (#18) and 142.7 WR yards a game (#17).

The wall: 41.9 TE yards a game (#7) and 214.7 QB yards a game (#9).

Line: DraftKings via ESPN · Splits: Action Network · Records: TeamRankings (2026 season + 2023-2025 sums; All Games rows include playoffs) · Model: 10,000-game simulation · Injuries: Tuesday report
Defensive Matchup Ratings
SEA defense
faces CHI
vs QB
#5
#1 182.8 yds/gm
#9 1.3 td/gm
vs RB
#4
#6 78.5 yds/gm
#3 0.27 td/gm
vs WR
#2
#1 103.0 yds/gm
#2 9.4 rec/gm
vs TE
#16
#13 44.9 yds/gm
#18 5.3 rec/gm
CHI defense
faces SEA
vs QB
#12
#9 214.7 yds/gm
#14 1.39 td/gm
vs RB
#12
#18 95.6 yds/gm
#6 0.39 td/gm
vs WR
#11
#17 142.7 yds/gm
#5 9.8 rec/gm
vs TE
#7
#7 41.9 yds/gm
#7 4.4 rec/gm
Player Board
TEAM POS
SORT
Streak badges = consecutive games clearing ▲ over or missing ▼ under the line
D'Andre Swift
RB1
D'Andre Swift
CHI · Rush 44→78 ↑ 77%
ACTIVE
Swift's rushing TDs have all come in Week 1 (3), but his workload is stable at 16–20 carries and he rebounded to 84 yards in Week 3 after a 45-yard Week 2. Kyle Monangai logged exactly half of Swift's ground workload in Week 3 (per ESPN), capping Swift's ceiling. No recent history vs the Jets. Carries W1→W3: 18 → 16 → 20.Rush yds: 124 → 45 → 84 → 58.Rush TDs: 3 → 0 → 0 → 0 (all 3 TDs came in Week 1).Targets: 1 → 6 →...
Rush yds
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
63.5
LINE
68.0 (7g)
2026 AVG
62%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
4/7
W1-W6 OVER
2.5
LINE
3▲ straight
2.9 (7g)
2026 AVG
52%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec yds
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
20.5
LINE
21.7 (7g)
2026 AVG
64%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
2/7
TDS/GAMES
32%
MODEL
2/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Luther Burden III
WR1
Luther Burden III
CHI · Rec 95→130 ↑ 37%
ACTIVE
The second-year wideout has the hottest target trend on the Bears (5 → 7 → 11) and led the team in catches and targets in the Week 3 win, adding his first TD. He is functioning as Chicago's de facto WR1 by usage ahead of Rome Odunze. No recent history vs the Jets. Targets W1→W3: 5 → 7 → 11.Rec yds: 63 → 32 → 61 → 63. First TD of 2026 in Week 3.
Rec yds
MARKET
5/7
W1-W6 OVER
52.5
LINE
70.1 (7g)
2026 AVG
58%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
2/7
TDS/GAMES
28%
MODEL
2/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Rome Odunze
WR2
Rome Odunze
CHI · Rec 39→69 ↑ 77%
ACTIVE
Odunze's targets are creeping up (3 → 4 → 6) but he has been overtaken by Luther Burden III as the Bears' most-targeted receiver, and his yardage has flatlined in the 40s. Still looking for his first TD of 2026. No recent history vs the Jets. Targets W1→W3: 3 → 4 → 6.Rec yds: 52 → 43 → 44 → 94. Scoreless in 2026.
Rec yds
MARKET
5/7
W1-W6 OVER
42.5
LINE
54.4 (7g)
2026 AVG
60%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
1/7
W1-W6 OVER
3.5
LINE
2.6 (7g)
2026 AVG
61%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
0/7
TDS/GAMES
18%
MODEL
0/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Colston Loveland
TE1
Colston Loveland
CHI · Rec 65→69 ↑ 6%
QUESTIONABLE
Loveland's involvement is rising every week and he caught all 4 of his Week 3 targets, passing Cole Kmet (targets 3 → 1 → 1) as Chicago's lead receiving TE. The yardage is still modest (31), but the trend arrow is clearly up. No recent history vs the Jets. Targets W1→W3: 2 → 3 → 4.Rec yds: 0 → 3 → 31 → 57. Scoreless in 2026.
Rec yds
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
44.5
LINE
34.9 (7g)
2026 AVG
66%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
2/7
W1-W6 OVER
4.5
LINE
2.9 (7g)
2026 AVG
51%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
2/7
TDS/GAMES
28%
MODEL
2/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Sam Darnold
QB1
Sam Darnold
SEA · Pass 278→257 ↓ 8%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Darnold returned from his glute injury in style — 379 yards and 4 TDs on 45 attempts against Washington. He had thrown just 2 passes all season before Week 3, so this is effectively his first real start of 2026 and it could not have gone much better. Pass attempts 2 → 0 (injured) → 45. Missed effectively all of W1 (right glute injury on first possession) and all of W2; Drew Lock started in his place.
Pass yds
MARKET
3/6
W1-W6 OVER
240.5
LINE
215.0 (6g)
2026 AVG
68%
EDGE
GAMES
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Pass INT
MARKET
5/6
W1-W6 OVER
0.5
LINE
5▲ straight
1.3 (6g)
2026 AVG
66%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
-
TDS/GAMES
—
MODEL
-
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Cooper Kupp
WR1
Cooper Kupp
SEA · Rec 50→20 ↓ 60%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Kupp caught his first TD of 2026 in Week 3 (4/46), his best game of the season, as Darnold's return lifted the whole passing game. His target share had been modest (10 targets through 3 weeks) behind Smith-Njigba. Targets 3 → 2 → 5 → 2.Rec yds: 35 → 20 → 46 → 13.
Rec yds
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
25.5
LINE
28.4 (7g)
2026 AVG
56%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
2/7
W1-W6 OVER
2.5
LINE
2.6 (7g)
2026 AVG
51%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/7
TDS/GAMES
20%
MODEL
1/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA · Rec 134→150 ↑ 12%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Smith-Njigba is on a tear — 27 catches for 405 yards and 6 TDs through three weeks, with double-digit targets every game. Darnold's return "did nothing to slow his momentum" per ESPN notes. He is the clear alpha of Seattle's offense regardless of QB. Targets 11 → 11 → 14 → 6.Rec yds: 122 → 155 → 128 → 76.Rec TDs: 1 → 3 → 2 → 0 (6 total).
Rec yds
MARKET
6/7
W1-W6 OVER
99.5
LINE
3▲ straight
123.9 (7g)
2026 AVG
50%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
5/7
W1-W6 OVER
7.5
LINE
8.3 (7g)
2026 AVG
60%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
5/7
TDS/GAMES
40%
MODEL
5/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Rashid Shaheed
WR3
Rashid Shaheed
SEA · Rec 66→1 ↓ 98%
QUESTIONABLE
Injury: — Shaheed's offensive role remains small (6 catches, 53 yards through 3 weeks); his main value is as Seattle's primary returner. His target count halved from Week 2 to Week 3 as Darnold funneled throws to Smith-Njigba. Targets 3 → 6 → 3 → 3.Rec yds: 4 → 35 → 14 → 20.
Rec yds
MARKET
2/7
W1-W6 OVER
25.5
LINE
23.3 (7g)
2026 AVG
66%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
2/7
W1-W6 OVER
2.5
LINE
2.3 (7g)
2026 AVG
52%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
0/7
TDS/GAMES
18%
MODEL
0/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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