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CLE
CLE
Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
PIT
PIT
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LAST 5
L
W
W
W
L
LAST 5
W
L
W
L
W
Market & Matchup
SPREAD
PIT -3.5
CLE +3.5 · DraftKings
TOTAL
39.5
Over / Under
MONEYLINE
PIT -180
CLE +150
MODEL
Sim projects CLE 22.5 - PIT 23.0 - PIT wins it 51% of sims, agreeing with the market favorite.
MONEY
The spread money is split from the tickets: 68% of spread money is on CLE - on just 60% of tickets.
RECORD
PIT is 2-0-0 ATS as a home favorite in 2026 (8-4-0 in the role since 2023); CLE is 1-2-0 ATS as an away underdog in 2026 (5-13-1 in the role since 2023).
Where the money is · one bar, tickets vs money
Spread · PIT -3.5
CLE 60%
PIT 40%
TICKETS
CLE 68%
PIT 32%
MONEY
Total · 39.5
OVER 75%
UNDER 25%
TICKETS
OVER 72%
UNDER 28%
MONEY
Moneyline
CLE 16%
PIT 84%
TICKETS
CLE 18%
PIT 82%
MONEY
Key injuries
Cleveland Browns
Deshaun WatsonQBACTIVE
Quinshon JudkinsRBACTIVE
Denzel BostonWRACTIVE
Jerry JeudyWRACTIVE
KC ConcepcionWRACTIVE
Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron RodgersQBACTIVE
Jaylen WarrenRBACTIVE
DK MetcalfWRACTIVE
Darnell WashingtonTEACTIVE
Pat FreiermuthTEACTIVE
Top props in this game · model edge
Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT
Over 2.5 rec
Over in 4/7 games (avg 3.3) - CLE allows 5.8 receptions a game to TEs (#22)
68%
MODEL
Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE
Over 2.5 rec
Over in 4/7 games (avg 2.3) - PIT allows 11.3 receptions a game to WRs (#20)
64%
MODEL
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT
Over 24.5 rec yds
Over in 7/7 games (avg 42.0)
64%
MODEL
Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE
Over 53.5 rush yds
Over in 2/6 games (avg 52.8) - PIT allows 104.5 rush yards a game to RBs (#25)
63%
MODEL
No player on this page is out, so nobody had to be excluded from this strip.
Situational records · ATS
CLE · away underdog today
ATS - all games (2026)5-2-0
ATS - as away underdog (2026)1-2-0
ATS - as away underdog ('23-'25)5-13-1
Totals - over/under (2026)4-3-0
PIT · home favorite today
ATS - all games (2026)5-2-0
ATS - as home favorite (2026)2-0-0
ATS - as home favorite ('23-'25)8-4-0
Totals - over/under (2026)4-3-0
Matchup edges · 2026 season ranks
CLE ball vs PIT defense

The crack: 104.5 rush yards a game (#25) and 151.8 WR yards a game (#23).

The wall: 51.0 TE yards a game (#16) and 239.0 QB yards a game (#22).

PIT ball vs CLE defense

The crack: 101.9 rush yards a game (#23) and 57.8 TE yards a game (#22).

The wall: 137.7 WR yards a game (#14) and 221.5 QB yards a game (#15).

Line: DraftKings via ESPN · Splits: Action Network · Records: TeamRankings (2026 season + 2023-2025 sums; All Games rows include playoffs) · Model: 10,000-game simulation · Injuries: Tuesday report
Defensive Matchup Ratings
PIT defense
faces CLE
vs QB
#20
#22 239.0 yds/gm
#18 1.52 td/gm
vs RB
#17
#25 104.5 yds/gm
#9 0.5 td/gm
vs WR
#22
#23 151.8 yds/gm
#20 11.3 rec/gm
vs TE
#14
#16 51.0 yds/gm
#11 4.8 rec/gm
CLE defense
faces PIT
vs QB
#20
#15 221.5 yds/gm
#26 1.8 td/gm
vs RB
#15
#23 101.9 yds/gm
#7 0.41 td/gm
vs WR
#10
#14 137.7 yds/gm
#6 9.9 rec/gm
vs TE
#22
#22 57.8 yds/gm
#22 5.8 rec/gm
Player Board
TEAM POS
SORT
Streak badges = consecutive games clearing ▲ over or missing ▼ under the line
Deshaun Watson
QB1
Deshaun Watson
CLE · Pass 164→308 ↑ 88%
ACTIVE
Watson was inefficient through the air in Week 3 (16/30, 144 yds) but salvaged the line with 2 TD passes and a season-high 45 rushing yards in the win over Carolina. He has no 2024–2026 game action against Pittsburgh to reference. Pass attempts W1→W3: 22 → 30 → 30 → 33.Pass yds: 205 → 238 → 144 → 268. TD:INT: 1:1 → 2:0 → 2:0.Rush yds: 38 → 22 → 45 → 22.
Pass yds
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
206.5
LINE
211.7 (7g)
2026 AVG
57%
EDGE
GAMES
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Pass INT
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
0.5
LINE
0.4 (7g)
2026 AVG
60%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
-
TDS/GAMES
—
MODEL
-
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Quinshon Judkins
RB1
Quinshon Judkins
CLE · Rush 44→96 ↑ 118%
ACTIVE
Judkins set season highs in carries (18) and rushing yards (70) in Week 3 as the clear lead back, but remains scoreless on the ground through three games. His only meeting with Pittsburgh (Oct 2025) was a dud: 36 yards on 12 carries. Carries W1→W3: 12 → 12 → 18.Rush yds: 33 → 21 → 70 → 53.Targets: 2 → 5 → 2 → 7. Per ESPN notes, he took all but one of the Browns' RB carries in Week 3. Still zero rushing TDs in 2026.
Rush yds
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
53.5
LINE
52.8 (6g)
2026 AVG
63%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
3
LINE
3.2 (6g)
2026 AVG
55%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec yds
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
19.5
LINE
18.3 (6g)
2026 AVG
54%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/6
TDS/GAMES
30%
MODEL
1/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Denzel Boston
WR1
Denzel Boston
CLE · Rec 15→27 ↑ 80%
ACTIVE
Injury: QUESTIONABLE The rookie's breakout cooled in Week 3 — 2 catches for 41 yards after a 5/95/1 line in Week 2 — though his target count (4) held steady. He has scored in two of three games this season. No pro history vs Pittsburgh. Targets W1→W3: 4 → 7 → 4.Rec yds: 59 → 95 → 41 → 89. TDs in Weeks 1 and 2, none in Week 3.
Rec yds
MARKET
5/7
W1-W6 OVER
37
LINE
53.1 (7g)
2026 AVG
61%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
4/7
W1-W6 OVER
2.5
LINE
2.9 (7g)
2026 AVG
63%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
3/7
TDS/GAMES
42%
MODEL
3/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Jerry Jeudy
WR2
Jerry Jeudy
CLE · Rec 69→21 ↓ 70%
ACTIVE
Injury: QUESTIONABLE Jeudy has completely vanished — zero targets in Week 3 and one total target over the last two games — despite being healthy. That makes his strong history vs Pittsburgh (5 catches in each of the last three meetings, 13 targets in Oct 2025) hard to trust until his role returns. Targets W1→W3: 4 → 1 → 0.Rec yds: 26 → 0 → 0 → 36.
Rec yds
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
24.5
LINE
24.4 (7g)
2026 AVG
52%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
4/7
W1-W6 OVER
2.5
LINE
4▲ straight
2.3 (7g)
2026 AVG
64%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
0/7
TDS/GAMES
23%
MODEL
0/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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KC Concepcion
WR3
KC Concepcion
CLE · Rec 37→129 ↑ 249%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Concepcion's targets spiked to a team-high 9 in Week 3, but he converted them into just 2 catches for 9 yards — a brutal efficiency collapse after 6/28 in Week 2. The usage trend is strongly up; the production is not. Targets W1→W3: 5 → 6 → 9.Rec yds: 43 → 28 → 9 → 64. Also had 3/15 and 1/-6 rushing in Weeks 1–2. Per ESPN, he tied Harold Fannin for the team lead with 9 targets in Week 3.
Rec yds
MARKET
2/7
W1-W6 OVER
45.5
LINE
45.0 (7g)
2026 AVG
55%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
4.5
LINE
4.3 (7g)
2026 AVG
59%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
0/7
TDS/GAMES
15%
MODEL
0/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Harold Fannin Jr.
TE1
Harold Fannin Jr.
CLE · Rec 9→91 ↑ 911%
ACTIVE
Injury: QUESTIONABLE Fannin is on a tear — targets have tripled from Week 1 to Week 3 and he posted a 7/51/2 line against Carolina. He has also produced in both 2025 meetings with Pittsburgh (81 yards in October, a TD in December), making him the Browns' most proven option in this matchup. Targets W1→W3: 3 → 6 → 9.Rec yds: 21 → 54 → 51 → 27. First two TDs of 2026 came in Week 3.
Rec yds
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
36.5
LINE
36.7 (7g)
2026 AVG
58%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
3.5
LINE
3.6 (7g)
2026 AVG
55%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
2/7
TDS/GAMES
33%
MODEL
2/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Aaron Rodgers
QB1
Aaron Rodgers
PIT · Pass 253→212 ↓ 16%
ACTIVE
Rodgers is coming off his best game as a Steeler — 292 yards and 3 TDs in the Week 3 win over Cincinnati after two flat outings (187 yds, 0 TD in Week 2). He has split his two 2025 starts vs Cleveland, torching them for 235/2 in October but managing only 168 scoreless yards in the December rematch. No injury designation. Pass attempts W1→W3: 40 → 39 → 34 → 40.Pass yds: 221 → 187 → 292 → 299. TDs: 1 → 0 → 3. INTs: 0...
Pass yds
MARKET
4/7
W1-W6 OVER
223.5
LINE
242.7 (7g)
2026 AVG
52%
EDGE
GAMES
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Pass INT
MARKET
4/7
W1-W6 OVER
0.5
LINE
0.7 (7g)
2026 AVG
63%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
-
TDS/GAMES
—
MODEL
-
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Jaylen Warren
RB1
Jaylen Warren
PIT · Rush 50→101 ↑ 102%
ACTIVE
Warren exploded for a season-high 127 rushing yards in Week 3 with the backfield to himself, more than doubling his Weeks 1–2 output — though he still hasn't scored a rushing TD in 2026. His history vs Cleveland is steady but unspectacular: 47–64 rushing yards in each of the last three meetings, zero TDs. Dowdle is Questionable, so the lead role may continue. Carries W1→W3: 10 → 11 → 17.Rush yds: 46 → 43 → 127 →...
Rush yds
MARKET
4/7
W1-W6 OVER
63.5
LINE
80.1 (7g)
2026 AVG
57%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
2/7
W1-W6 OVER
4.5
LINE
3.4 (7g)
2026 AVG
52%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec yds
MARKET
7/7
W1-W6 OVER
24.5
LINE
8▲ straight
42.0 (7g)
2026 AVG
64%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/7
TDS/GAMES
24%
MODEL
1/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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DK Metcalf
WR1
DK Metcalf
PIT · Rec 93→56 ↓ 40%
ACTIVE
Metcalf's target share is shrinking (10 → 9 → 5) even as he finally found the end zone in Week 3. His one verified 2025 game vs Cleveland was a big one — 4/95/1 on 9 targets in October — but he did not record a catch in the December rematch per the ESPN boxscore. Targets W1→W3: 10 → 9 → 5.Rec yds: 40 → 27 → 31 → 115. His lone 2026 TD came in Week 3.
Rec yds
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
51.5
LINE
53.4 (7g)
2026 AVG
62%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
2/7
W1-W6 OVER
4.5
LINE
4.6 (7g)
2026 AVG
51%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/7
TDS/GAMES
25%
MODEL
1/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Michael Pittman Jr.
WR2
Michael Pittman Jr.
PIT · Rec 15→0 ↓ 100%
ACTIVE
Pittman returned from his one-game foot absence in Week 3 but was quiet (2/16 on 5 targets) after posting 3/58 in the opener. He has no 2024–2026 history against Cleveland from his Colts years. He is off the injury report for Thursday. Targets W1→W3: 3 → DNP (foot) → 5. Rec yds: 58 → DNP → 16. Cleared to return from a one-game foot absence in Week 3.
Rec yds
MARKET
1/4
W1-W6 OVER
26.5
LINE
3▼ straight
22.2 (4g)
2026 AVG
59%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
1/4
W1-W6 OVER
2.5
LINE
3▼ straight
1.8 (4g)
2026 AVG
52%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
0/4
TDS/GAMES
33%
MODEL
0/4
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Darnell Washington
TE1
Darnell Washington
PIT · Rec 25→4 ↓ 84%
ACTIVE
Injury: IR Washington's Week 3 breakout (3/67) matched his combined catch total from Weeks 1–2 and he doubled his target count. He has flashed against Cleveland before — 62 yards on 5 targets in the October 2025 meeting — though he was shut out in the 2024 game. Targets W1→W3: 2 → 2 → 4.Rec yds: 18 → 7 → 67 → 27. Zero TDs in 2026.
Rec yds
MARKET
4/7
W1-W6 OVER
17
LINE
22.9 (7g)
2026 AVG
58%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
2.5
LINE
2.3 (7g)
2026 AVG
60%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
3/7
TDS/GAMES
33%
MODEL
3/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Pat Freiermuth
TE2
Pat Freiermuth
PIT · Rec 11→20 ↑ 82%
ACTIVE
Freiermuth's production has faded each week (46 → 32 → 30 yards) with Darnell Washington's role growing. He has a solid track record vs Cleveland though — 63 yards in the December 2025 meeting and a TD in the 2024 matchup. Targets W1→W3: 5 → 5 → 4.Rec yds: 46 → 32 → 30 → 17. One TD on the season (Week 1).
Rec yds
MARKET
4/7
W1-W6 OVER
24.5
LINE
28.6 (7g)
2026 AVG
64%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
4/7
W1-W6 OVER
2.5
LINE
3.3 (7g)
2026 AVG
68%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
3/7
TDS/GAMES
30%
MODEL
3/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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