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IND
IND
Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
JAX
JAX
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LAST 5
L
L
W
W
L
LAST 5
W
L
W
W
W
Market & Matchup
SPREAD
JAX -7.5
IND +7.5 · DraftKings
TOTAL
46.5
Over / Under
MONEYLINE
JAX -395
IND +310
MODEL
Sim projects IND 20.4 - JAX 25.1 - JAX wins it 63% of sims, agreeing with the market favorite.
MONEY
The spread money is split from the tickets: 61% of spread money is on IND - on just 48% of tickets.
RECORD
JAX is 2-0-0 ATS as a home favorite in 2026 (7-5-0 in the role since 2023); IND is 2-1-0 ATS as an away underdog in 2026 (9-6-1 in the role since 2023).
Where the money is · one bar, tickets vs money
Spread · JAX -7.5
IND 48%
JAX 52%
TICKETS
IND 61%
JAX 39%
MONEY
Total · 46.5
OVER 25%
UNDER 75%
TICKETS
OVER 23%
UNDER 77%
MONEY
Moneyline
IND 7%
JAX 93%
TICKETS
IND 6%
JAX 94%
MONEY
Key injuries
Indianapolis Colts
Daniel JonesQBACTIVE
Jonathan TaylorRBACTIVE
Josh DownsWRACTIVE
Keenan AllenWRACTIVE
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor LawrenceQBACTIVE
Bhayshul TutenRBACTIVE
Jakobi MeyersWRQUES
Parker WashingtonWRACTIVE
Brenton StrangeTEACTIVE
Top props in this game · model edge
Keenan Allen WR · IND
Over 3.5 rec
Over in 4/6 games (avg 4.8) - JAX allows 13.2 receptions a game to WRs (#29)
75%
MODEL
Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX
Over 1.5 pass td
Over in 4/6 games (avg 2.3) - IND allows 1.42 pass TDs a game to QBs (#16)
71%
MODEL
Daniel Jones QB · IND
Over 0.5 pass int
Over in 6/7 games (avg 1.0)
69%
MODEL
Parker Washington WR · JAX
Over 4.5 rec
Over in 3/6 games (avg 4.2) - IND allows 12.1 receptions a game to WRs (#26)
66%
MODEL
No player on this page is out, so nobody had to be excluded from this strip.
Situational records · ATS
IND · away underdog today
ATS - all games (2026)4-3-0
ATS - as away underdog (2026)2-1-0
ATS - as away underdog ('23-'25)9-6-1
Totals - over/under (2026)4-3-0
JAX · home favorite today
ATS - all games (2026)3-3-0
ATS - as home favorite (2026)2-0-0
ATS - as home favorite ('23-'25)7-5-0
Totals - over/under (2026)2-4-0
Matchup edges · 2026 season ranks
IND ball vs JAX defense

The crack: 255.2 QB yards a game (#29) and 172.7 WR yards a game (#29).

The wall: 57.0 rush yards a game (#1) and 44.0 TE yards a game (#10).

JAX ball vs IND defense

The crack: 269.1 QB yards a game (#31) and 173.7 WR yards a game (#30).

The wall: 94.5 rush yards a game (#16) and 61.1 TE yards a game (#23).

Line: DraftKings via ESPN · Splits: Action Network · Records: TeamRankings (2026 season + 2023-2025 sums; All Games rows include playoffs) · Model: 10,000-game simulation · Injuries: Tuesday report
Defensive Matchup Ratings
JAX defense
faces IND
vs QB
#16
#29 255.2 yds/gm
#3 0.99 td/gm
vs RB
#2
#1 57.0 yds/gm
#4 0.38 td/gm
vs WR
#29
#29 172.7 yds/gm
#29 13.2 rec/gm
vs TE
#9
#10 44.0 yds/gm
#8 4.5 rec/gm
IND defense
faces JAX
vs QB
#24
#31 269.1 yds/gm
#16 1.42 td/gm
vs RB
#20
#16 94.5 yds/gm
#25 0.86 td/gm
vs WR
#28
#30 173.7 yds/gm
#26 12.1 rec/gm
vs TE
#23
#23 61.1 yds/gm
#23 5.8 rec/gm
Player Board
TEAM POS
SORT
Streak badges = consecutive games clearing ▲ over or missing ▼ under the line
Daniel Jones
QB1
Daniel Jones
IND · Pass 269→108 ↓ 60%
ACTIVE
Jones has thrown for more yards in each successive week (166 → 210 → 235) and led Indianapolis to its first win in Week 3, though he has thrown exactly 1 TD and 1 INT in all three games. He faces a Washington defense he hasn't played in 2024–2026. Pass attempts W1→W3: 31 → 31 → 36 → 34.Pass yds: 166 → 210 → 235 → 143. TD:INT each week: 1:1. Steady yardage climb.
Pass yds
MARKET
4/7
W1-W6 OVER
197
LINE
199.7 (7g)
2026 AVG
61%
EDGE
GAMES
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Pass INT
MARKET
6/7
W1-W6 OVER
0.5
LINE
1.0 (7g)
2026 AVG
69%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
-
TDS/GAMES
—
MODEL
-
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Jonathan Taylor
RB1
Jonathan Taylor
IND · Rush 94→95 ↑ 1%
ACTIVE
Taylor's rushing production has declined for two straight weeks (98 → 92 → 68) despite a stable 19–24 carry workload, and his receiving involvement dried up in Week 3 (4 yards). The TDs that carried Weeks 1–2 (2 each) disappeared. No recent history vs Washington. Carries W1→W3: 19 → 24 → 23.Rush yds: 98 → 92 → 68 → 95.Rush TDs: 2 → 2 → 0 → 2.Targets: 4 → 4 → 3 → 4 (23 receiving yds → 40 → 4). Per ESPN, 25 touches in...
Rush yds
MARKET
5/7
W1-W6 OVER
72.5
LINE
83.9 (7g)
2026 AVG
64%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
2.5
LINE
2.4 (7g)
2026 AVG
52%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec yds
MARKET
4/7
W1-W6 OVER
17.5
LINE
25.4 (7g)
2026 AVG
56%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
5/7
TDS/GAMES
48%
MODEL
5/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Josh Downs
WR1
Josh Downs
IND · Rec 40→18 ↓ 55%
ACTIVE
Downs' target share has nearly tripled since Week 1 (4 → 9 → 11) and his yardage has climbed each week, establishing him as Jones's most-targeted option. Still scoreless in 2026. No recent history vs Washington. Targets W1→W3: 4 → 9 → 11.Rec yds: 37 → 72 → 77 → 16. Per ESPN, he narrowly led the team in targets in Week 3.
Rec yds
MARKET
5/7
W1-W6 OVER
36
LINE
43.9 (7g)
2026 AVG
64%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
2/7
W1-W6 OVER
4.5
LINE
4▼ straight
3.7 (7g)
2026 AVG
59%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
0/7
TDS/GAMES
18%
MODEL
0/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Keenan Allen
WR2
Keenan Allen
IND · Rec 82→31 ↓ 62%
ACTIVE
Allen bounced back from a 1-catch Week 2 with a 6/63/1 line in Week 3, his best game as a Colt, helped by Pierce landing on IR. His target volume is volatile week to week (6 → 5 → 9). No recent history vs Washington. Targets W1→W3: 6 → 5 → 9. Rec yds: 32 → 5 → 63. Per ESPN, he took advantage of Alec Pierce's absence (heel, now IR) in Week 3.
Rec yds
MARKET
3/6
W1-W6 OVER
37.5
LINE
43.0 (6g)
2026 AVG
57%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
4/6
W1-W6 OVER
3.5
LINE
4.8 (6g)
2026 AVG
75%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/6
TDS/GAMES
31%
MODEL
1/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Trevor Lawrence
QB1
Trevor Lawrence
JAX · Pass 331→306 ↓ 8%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Rebounded from a scoreless W2 (189 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT) with 3 TD passes in W3, though yardage stayed modest at 182. His volume has held steady at 29 attempts in each of the last two weeks after 23 in the opener. He has thrown 3 TDs in two of the three meetings (2025, 2023) but was held without a passing TD in the 2021 meeting. pass attempts 23 → 29 → 29 → 23.
Pass yds
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
250.5
LINE
246.7 (6g)
2026 AVG
56%
EDGE
GAMES
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Pass TD
MARKET
4/6
W1-W6 OVER
1.5
LINE
2.3 (6g)
2026 AVG
71%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rush yds
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
15.5
LINE
11.7 (6g)
2026 AVG
55%
EDGE
GAMES
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Pass INT
MARKET
4/6
W1-W6 OVER
0.5
LINE
0.7 (6g)
2026 AVG
68%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
-
TDS/GAMES
—
MODEL
-
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Bhayshul Tuten
RB1
Bhayshul Tuten
JAX · Rush 72→39 ↓ 46%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Posted season highs in carries (15) and rushing yards (73) in W3 with his second straight rushing TD. His workload has been stable at 13–15 carries in all three games. He also scored through the air against these Bengals last September (2 rec, 32 yds, 1 TD). carries 15 → 13 → 15 → 17;targets 1 → 2 → 2 → 2.
Rush yds
MARKET
5/6
W1-W6 OVER
61.5
LINE
64.7 (6g)
2026 AVG
56%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
1/6
W1-W6 OVER
2.5
LINE
1.8 (6g)
2026 AVG
52%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec yds
MARKET
3/6
W1-W6 OVER
18
LINE
21.0 (6g)
2026 AVG
56%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
2/6
TDS/GAMES
38%
MODEL
2/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Jakobi Meyers
WR1
Jakobi Meyers
JAX · Rec 37→83 ↑ 124%
QUESTIONABLE
Injury: — Erupted in W3 with season highs across the board (8 targets, 7 catches, 64 yds, 1 TD) after just 3 total targets in W1–W2. He practiced in full this week despite the thumb listing. targets 2 → 1 → 8 → 4.
Rec yds
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
40
LINE
47.5 (6g)
2026 AVG
53%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
3.5
LINE
2.8 (6g)
2026 AVG
61%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
2/6
TDS/GAMES
28%
MODEL
2/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Parker Washington
WR2
Parker Washington
JAX · Rec 124→64 ↓ 48%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Quietest game of the season in W3 (5 targets, 40 yds) after a 12-target, 98-yard W2. He has caught everything thrown his way in two career games vs Cincinnati (11-of-11 for 137 yds and a TD combined). targets 6 → 12 → 5 → 3.
Rec yds
MARKET
3/6
W1-W6 OVER
68.5
LINE
69.3 (6g)
2026 AVG
55%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
3/6
W1-W6 OVER
4.5
LINE
4.2 (6g)
2026 AVG
66%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
2/6
TDS/GAMES
30%
MODEL
2/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Brenton Strange
TE1
Brenton Strange
JAX · Rec 68→44 ↓ 35%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Set season highs in targets (5) and yards (32) in W3 but remains scoreless since his W1 TD. Usage has been modest all year — 10 targets through three weeks. targets 3 → 2 → 5 → 8.
Rec yds
MARKET
3/6
W1-W6 OVER
39
LINE
3▲ straight
46.5 (6g)
2026 AVG
50%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
3.5
LINE
3.2 (6g)
2026 AVG
58%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/6
TDS/GAMES
26%
MODEL
1/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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