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KC
KC
Sun Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
DEN
DEN
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LAST 5
W
W
W
W
LAST 5
W
W
L
W
W
Market & Matchup
SPREAD
KC -1.5
DEN +1.5 · DraftKings
TOTAL
41.5
Over / Under
MONEYLINE
KC -125
DEN +105
MODEL
Sim projects KC 23.6 - DEN 21.9 - KC wins it 55% of sims, agreeing with the market favorite.
MONEY
The moneyline money is split from the tickets: 60% of moneyline money is on DEN - on just 27% of tickets.
RECORD
KC is 1-1-0 ATS as an away favorite in 2026 (8-11-1 in the role since 2023); DEN is 1-0-0 ATS as a home underdog in 2026 (4-2-0 in the role since 2023).
Where the money is · one bar, tickets vs money
Spread · KC -1.5
KC 60%
DEN 40%
TICKETS
KC 57%
DEN 43%
MONEY
Total · 41.5
OVER 77%
UNDER 23%
TICKETS
OVER 80%
UNDER 20%
MONEY
Moneyline
KC 73%
DEN 27%
TICKETS
KC 40%
DEN 60%
MONEY
Key injuries
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick MahomesQBACTIVE
Xavier WorthyWRACTIVE
Travis KelceTEACTIVE
Denver Broncos
Jaylen WaddleWR · Waddle didn't return to Sunday's 30-16 win over the CardinalQUES
Bo NixQBACTIVE
J.K. DobbinsRBACTIVE
RJ HarveyRBOUT
Courtland SuttonWRACTIVE
Top props in this game · model edge
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN
Over 39 rec yds
Over in 2/7 games (avg 24.0) - KC allows 120.6 receiving yards a game to WRs (#4)
80%
MODEL
Bo Nix QB · DEN
Over 213.5 pass yds
Over in 3/7 games (avg 181.6) - KC allows 218.4 pass yards a game to QBs (#13)
76%
MODEL
Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN
Over 56.5 rec yds
Over in 1/7 games (avg 39.4) - KC allows 120.6 receiving yards a game to WRs (#4)
76%
MODEL
RJ Harvey RB · DEN
Over 19.5 rush yds
Over in 2/6 games (avg 14.5) - KC allows 77.3 rush yards a game to RBs (#5)
67%
MODEL
No player on this page is out, so nobody had to be excluded from this strip.
Situational records · ATS
KC · away favorite today
ATS - all games (2026)3-3-0
ATS - as away favorite (2026)1-1-0
ATS - as away favorite ('23-'25)8-11-1
Totals - over/under (2026)2-4-0
DEN · home underdog today
ATS - all games (2026)5-2-0
ATS - as home underdog (2026)1-0-0
ATS - as home underdog ('23-'25)4-2-0
Totals - over/under (2026)2-5-0
Matchup edges · 2026 season ranks
KC ball vs DEN defense

The crack: 64.3 TE yards a game (#26) and 228.5 QB yards a game (#17).

The wall: 91.5 rush yards a game (#11) and 132.5 WR yards a game (#11).

DEN ball vs KC defense

The crack: 64.7 TE yards a game (#28) and 218.4 QB yards a game (#13).

The wall: 120.6 WR yards a game (#4) and 77.3 rush yards a game (#5).

Line: DraftKings via ESPN · Splits: Action Network · Records: TeamRankings (2026 season + 2023-2025 sums; All Games rows include playoffs) · Model: 10,000-game simulation · Injuries: Tuesday report
Defensive Matchup Ratings
DEN defense
faces KC
vs QB
#12
#17 228.5 yds/gm
#8 1.3 td/gm
vs RB
#12
#11 91.5 yds/gm
#12 0.61 td/gm
vs WR
#12
#11 132.5 yds/gm
#12 10.4 rec/gm
vs TE
#26
#26 64.3 yds/gm
#25 5.9 rec/gm
KC defense
faces DEN
vs QB
#8
#13 218.4 yds/gm
#4 1.04 td/gm
vs RB
#9
#5 77.3 yds/gm
#13 0.61 td/gm
vs WR
#6
#4 120.6 yds/gm
#9 10.3 rec/gm
vs TE
#28
#28 64.7 yds/gm
#29 6.6 rec/gm
Player Board
TEAM POS
SORT
Streak badges = consecutive games clearing ▲ over or missing ▼ under the line
Patrick Mahomes
QB1
Patrick Mahomes
KC · Pass 272→165 ↓ 39%
ACTIVE
Mahomes opened the Week 3 win at Miami with a 48-yard strike to Kelce on the first play and finished an efficient 20/24, per ESPN. His volume swung wildly across the first three weeks (27 → 47 → 24 attempts), tracking game script. pass attempts 27 → 47 → 24; pass yds 184 → 382 → 246; pass TDs 2 → 3 → 2.
Pass yds
MARKET
4/6
W1-W6 OVER
224
LINE
245.7 (6g)
2026 AVG
61%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
-
TDS/GAMES
—
MODEL
-
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Kenneth Walker
RB1
Kenneth Walker
KC · Rush 128→36 ↓ 72%
ACTIVE
Walker scored both a rushing and receiving TD in the same game for the second time in three outings as a Chief, per ESPN. His rushing yardage has declined two straight weeks (173 → 117 → 70) even as the TDs keep coming. carries 23 → 24 → 18; rush yds 173 → 117 → 70; rush TDs 1 → 0 → 1; targets 6 → 10 → 2.
Rush yds
MARKET
4/6
W1-W6 OVER
82.5
LINE
116.8 (6g)
2026 AVG
54%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
3/6
TDS/GAMES
48%
MODEL
3/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Xavier Worthy
WR2
Xavier Worthy
KC · Rec 73→11 ↓ 85%
ACTIVE
Worthy's Week 3 role shrank to 2 targets after a 5-catch, 25-yard, 1-TD Week 2, per ESPN. He has yet to top 55 yards in a game this season and trails Rice clearly in the target pecking order. targets 6 → 7 → 2; receptions 3 → 5 → 2; rec yds 18 → 25 → 20; rec TDs 0 → 1 → 0.
Rec yds
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
35.5
LINE
36.2 (6g)
2026 AVG
65%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
3/6
W1-W6 OVER
3.5
LINE
4.0 (6g)
2026 AVG
55%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/6
TDS/GAMES
24%
MODEL
1/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Travis Kelce
TE1
Travis Kelce
KC · Rec 53→44 ↓ 17%
ACTIVE
Kelce notched a 48-yard gain on the game's opening play and added an 11-yard TD catch late in the fourth quarter of the Week 3 win, per ESPN — 59 of his yards came on two explosive plays despite only 2 targets. targets 5 → 11 → 2; receptions 3 → 9 → 2; rec yds 71 → 101 → 59; rec TDs 0 → 1 → 1.
Rec yds
MARKET
4/6
W1-W6 OVER
47.5
LINE
57.2 (6g)
2026 AVG
63%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
1/6
W1-W6 OVER
4.5
LINE
4▼ straight
4.0 (6g)
2026 AVG
56%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
2/6
TDS/GAMES
30%
MODEL
2/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Bo Nix
QB1
Bo Nix
DEN · Pass 107→222 ↑ 107%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Nix's attempt volume is climbing (28→31→34) but efficiency dipped in Week 3 — just 186 yards in a Monday loss to Kansas City after a 288-yard Week 2. His 2 pass TDs plus a rushing score kept the fantasy line respectable. He draws a 3-0 49ers defense at Levi's. Pass attempts 28 → 31 → 34 → 42 (W1–W4).Pass yds: 131 → 288 → 186 → 214.
Pass yds
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
213.5
LINE
181.6 (7g)
2026 AVG
76%
EDGE
GAMES
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Pass TD
MARKET
1/7
W1-W6 OVER
1.5
LINE
4▼ straight
1.0 (7g)
2026 AVG
55%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rush yds
MARKET
1/7
W1-W6 OVER
17
LINE
15.9 (7g)
2026 AVG
66%
EDGE
GAMES
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Pass INT
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
0.5
LINE
4▼ straight
0.4 (7g)
2026 AVG
53%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
-
TDS/GAMES
—
MODEL
-
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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J.K. Dobbins
RB1
J.K. Dobbins
DEN · Rush 41→23 ↓ 44%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Dobbins handled a season-high 17 carries in Week 3, his largest workload of the young season, but managed only 49 yards (2.9 YPC) against Kansas City. His role is secure as Denver's early-down back; efficiency is the open question. Carries 8 → 10 → 17 → 11 (W1–W4).Targets: 0 → 0 → 2 → 2. Clear lead back: no other DEN RB exceeded 10 carries through 3 weeks (ESPN injury report note).
Rush yds
MARKET
4/7
W1-W6 OVER
39.5
LINE
41.9 (7g)
2026 AVG
62%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
1
LINE
1.1 (7g)
2026 AVG
53%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec yds
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
4
LINE
3.9 (7g)
2026 AVG
51%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
3/7
TDS/GAMES
35%
MODEL
3/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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RJ Harvey
RB2
RJ Harvey
DEN · Rush 25→6 ↓ 76%
OUT
Injury: — Harvey returned from his hamstring absence and immediately tied for the team lead in targets (7), catching 6 for 41 yards — Denver's de facto passing-down back. He has just 5 carries all season, so his value is entirely through the air. Carries 3 → DNP (W2, hamstring) → 2.Targets: 4 → 0 → 7 → 10. Tied for the DEN team lead in targets in Week 3 (ESPN injury note).
Rush yds
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
19.5
LINE
14.5 (6g)
2026 AVG
67%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
3.5
LINE
4▼ straight
2.5 (6g)
2026 AVG
51%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec yds
MARKET
4/6
W1-W6 OVER
25.5
LINE
36.2 (6g)
2026 AVG
52%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
2/6
TDS/GAMES
30%
MODEL
2/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Courtland Sutton
WR1
Courtland Sutton
DEN · Rec 19→45 ↑ 137%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Sutton's involvement is trending up — a team-high 7 targets and team-leading 46 yards in Week 3, his best game of 2026. Still no touchdowns through three weeks; he remains Nix's most-targeted wideout. Targets 5 → 4 → 7 → 6 (W1–W4).Rec yds: 11 → 25 → 46 → 4.
Rec yds
MARKET
2/7
W1-W6 OVER
39
LINE
24.0 (7g)
2026 AVG
80%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
0/7
W1-W6 OVER
3.5
LINE
8▼ straight
2.3 (7g)
2026 AVG
62%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/7
TDS/GAMES
29%
MODEL
1/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Jaylen Waddle
WR2
Jaylen Waddle
DEN · Rec 24→48 ↑ 100%
QUESTIONABLE
Injury: — After an 8-catch, 138-yard explosion in Week 2, Waddle crashed to 2 catches for 10 yards on 7 targets in Week 3 and is now listed questionable with a leg injury. His week-to-week volatility is extreme, and his Week 4 status bears watching. Targets 3 → 10 → 7 → 6.Rec yds: 2 → 138 → 10 → 35 (volatile).
Rec yds
MARKET
1/7
W1-W6 OVER
56.5
LINE
5▼ straight
39.4 (7g)
2026 AVG
76%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
1/7
W1-W6 OVER
5.5
LINE
5▼ straight
3.7 (7g)
2026 AVG
63%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/7
TDS/GAMES
22%
MODEL
1/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Evan Engram
TE1
Evan Engram
DEN · Rec 13→2 ↓ 85%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Engram's role is shrinking — from 43 yards and a TD in Week 1 to zero catches in Week 3, despite leading Denver's tight ends in snaps. He is still the primary pass-catching TE, but production has evaporated over the last two weeks. Targets 5 → 1 → 2 → 5.Rec yds: 43 → 17 → 0 → 6. Trending down.
Rec yds
MARKET
2/7
W1-W6 OVER
24.5
LINE
19.4 (7g)
2026 AVG
57%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
2/7
W1-W6 OVER
2.5
LINE
1.9 (7g)
2026 AVG
62%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/7
TDS/GAMES
20%
MODEL
1/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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