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MIN
MIN
Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Ford Field
DET
DET
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LAST 5
W
W
W
W
W
LAST 5
W
L
W
L
W
Market & Matchup
SPREAD
DET -3
MIN +3 · DraftKings
TOTAL
46.5
Over / Under
MONEYLINE
DET -166
MIN +140
MODEL
Sim projects MIN 16.8 - DET 28.7 - DET wins it 80% of sims, agreeing with the market favorite.
MONEY
The spread money is split from the tickets: 53% of spread money is on DET - on just 39% of tickets.
RECORD
DET is 0-2-1 ATS as a home favorite in 2026 (15-13-0 in the role since 2023); MIN is 2-0-0 ATS as an away underdog in 2026 (5-5-2 in the role since 2023).
Where the money is · one bar, tickets vs money
Spread · DET -3
MIN 61%
DET 39%
TICKETS
MIN 47%
DET 53%
MONEY
Total · 46.5
OVER 26%
UNDER 74%
TICKETS
OVER 21%
UNDER 79%
MONEY
Moneyline
MIN 30%
DET 70%
TICKETS
MIN 38%
DET 62%
MONEY
Key injuries
Minnesota Vikings
Aaron JonesRB · Head coach Kevin O'Connell said Jones (knee) won't practice ACTIVE
Kyler MurrayQBACTIVE
Jordan AddisonWRACTIVE
Justin JeffersonWRACTIVE
T.J. HockensonTEACTIVE
Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Lions head coach Dan Campbell said that St. Brown tweaked hiACTIVE
Jared GoffQBACTIVE
Jahmyr GibbsRBACTIVE
Isaac TeSlaaWRACTIVE
Jameson WilliamsWRACTIVE
Top props in this game · model edge
Jameson Williams WR · DET
Over 51.5 rec yds
Over in 2/6 games (avg 61.2) - MIN allows 129.6 receiving yards a game to WRs (#8)
70%
MODEL
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET
Over 79.5 rec yds
Over in 2/6 games (avg 87.5) - MIN allows 129.6 receiving yards a game to WRs (#8)
69%
MODEL
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET
Over 39.5 rec yds
Over in 3/6 games (avg 45.0)
66%
MODEL
Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET
Over 27 rec yds
Over in 2/6 games (avg 32.8) - MIN allows 129.6 receiving yards a game to WRs (#8)
66%
MODEL
No player on this page is out, so nobody had to be excluded from this strip.
Situational records · ATS
MIN · away underdog today
ATS - all games (2026)4-2-0
ATS - as away underdog (2026)2-0-0
ATS - as away underdog ('23-'25)5-5-2
Totals - over/under (2026)1-5-0
DET · home favorite today
ATS - all games (2026)1-4-1
ATS - as home favorite (2026)0-2-1
ATS - as home favorite ('23-'25)15-13-0
Totals - over/under (2026)5-1-0
Matchup edges · 2026 season ranks
MIN ball vs DET defense

The crack: 283.0 QB yards a game (#32) and 182.5 WR yards a game (#32).

No real wall here - even the better numbers are soft: 95.1 rush yards a game (#17) and 78.9 TE yards a game (#31).

DET ball vs MIN defense

The crack: 44.0 TE yards a game (#11) and 90.8 rush yards a game (#10).

The wall: 194.5 QB yards a game (#3) and 129.6 WR yards a game (#8).

Line: DraftKings via ESPN · Splits: Action Network · Records: TeamRankings (2026 season + 2023-2025 sums; All Games rows include playoffs) · Model: 10,000-game simulation · Injuries: Tuesday report
Defensive Matchup Ratings
DET defense
faces MIN
vs QB
#31
#32 283.0 yds/gm
#30 2.22 td/gm
vs RB
#22
#17 95.1 yds/gm
#27 0.87 td/gm
vs WR
#32
#32 182.5 yds/gm
#31 13.4 rec/gm
vs TE
#32
#31 78.9 yds/gm
#32 7.3 rec/gm
MIN defense
faces DET
vs QB
#2
#3 194.5 yds/gm
#1 0.72 td/gm
vs RB
#9
#10 90.8 yds/gm
#8 0.48 td/gm
vs WR
#6
#8 129.6 yds/gm
#3 9.7 rec/gm
vs TE
#6
#11 44.0 yds/gm
#1 3.4 rec/gm
Player Board
TEAM POS
SORT
Streak badges = consecutive games clearing ▲ over or missing ▼ under the line
Kyler Murray
QB1
Kyler Murray
MIN · → 0%
ACTIVE
Injury: Returning (concussion; Active) Murray made his first start since suffering a concussion in the first quarter of Week 1 vs Green Bay, taking over from Carson Wentz (who started Weeks 1–2: 133 yds/3 TD then 143 yds/0 TD), per ESPN. He managed the game in a 23-16 win at Tampa Bay — 168 yards on 29 attempts — with Justin Jefferson exiting early. pass attempts 5 → DNP → 29; pass yds 18 → DNP → 168.
Pass yds
MARKET
-
W1-W6 OVER
216
LINE
-
2026 AVG
—
EDGE
GAMES
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Pass INT
MARKET
-
W1-W6 OVER
0.5
LINE
-
2026 AVG
—
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
-
TDS/GAMES
—
MODEL
-
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Aaron Jones
RB1
Aaron Jones
MIN · Rush 113→26 ↓ 77%
ACTIVE
Jones "continued to lead the Vikings backfield" in Week 3 despite dealing with a knee injury during prep, per ESPN. His receiving usage spiked (6 targets, 5 catches) even as his rushing efficiency dipped to 3.4 ypc. carries 12 → 23 → 17 → 20;rush yds 40 → 105 → 58 → 94;rush TDs 1 → 0 → 0 → 0;targets 1 → 0 → 6 → 8.
Rush yds
MARKET
3/6
W1-W6 OVER
73
LINE
72.7 (6g)
2026 AVG
58%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
3.5
LINE
2.2 (6g)
2026 AVG
54%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec yds
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
19.5
LINE
12.0 (6g)
2026 AVG
59%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
2/6
TDS/GAMES
39%
MODEL
2/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Jordan Addison
WR1
Jordan Addison
MIN · → 0%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Addison served as the Vikings' "de facto No. 1 wide receiver" after Jefferson exited in Week 3, per ESPN, posting season highs across the board (5/90/1). His targets have risen every week (2 → 5 → 9). targets 2 → 5 → 9 → 6;receptions 0 → 2 → 5 → 4;rec yds 0 → 21 → 90 → 52;rec TDs 0 → 0 → 1 → 0.
Anytime TD
MARKET
1/5
TDS/GAMES
33%
MODEL
1/5
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Justin Jefferson
WR2
Justin Jefferson
MIN · → 0%
ACTIVE
Injury: QUESTIONABLE Jefferson injured the ankle in the first half of Week 3 and missed the final two quarters of the win over Tampa Bay, per ESPN; he is Questionable for Week 4. His production has fallen each week even before the injury (92 → 55 → 32 yards). targets 9 → 6 → 2; receptions 8 → 3 → 2; rec yds 92 → 55 → 32; rec TDs 2 → 0 → 0.
Anytime TD
MARKET
2/5
TDS/GAMES
37%
MODEL
2/5
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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T.J. Hockenson
TE1
T.J. Hockenson
MIN · → 0%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Hockenson "struggled along with the entire Vikings offense" in Week 3, per ESPN, managing just 11 yards. He is the uncontested TE1 with Josh Oliver on IR (torn bicep), but his yardage has declined three straight weeks. targets 5 → 4 → 4 → 13;receptions 4 → 3 → 2 → 13;rec yds 36 → 29 → 11 → 119;rec TDs 1 → 0 → 0 → 0.
Anytime TD
MARKET
2/6
TDS/GAMES
31%
MODEL
2/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Jared Goff
QB1
Jared Goff
DET · → 0%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Goff threw for 269 yards and 2 TDs in Week 3's win, his second straight multi-TD game. Attempt volume dipped to 32 (from 38-39) as the Lions leaned on the run, but efficiency stayed high at 8.4 YPA. Pass attempts 39 → 38 → 32 → 52.Pass yds: 206 → 327 → 269 → 412.Pass TDs: 2 → 4 → 2 → 1.
Pass yds
MARKET
-
W1-W6 OVER
267.5
LINE
-
2026 AVG
—
EDGE
GAMES
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Pass INT
MARKET
-
W1-W6 OVER
0.5
LINE
-
2026 AVG
—
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
-
TDS/GAMES
—
MODEL
-
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Jahmyr Gibbs
RB1
Jahmyr Gibbs
DET · Rush 151→116 ↓ 23%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Gibbs found the end zone three times in Week 3 (2 rushing, 1 receiving) on 99 rushing yards plus 65 receiving yards — six total TDs in three games. His receiving role keeps growing (8 targets in each of the last two weeks), and he dominates the backfield (65 carries vs next RB's 9). Carries 29 → 16 → 20 → 15.Targets 5 → 8 → 8 → 7 (rising).Total TDs: 2 → 1 → 3 → 1 (6 total through 3 games).
Rush yds
MARKET
4/6
W1-W6 OVER
86.5
LINE
103.3 (6g)
2026 AVG
52%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
5/6
W1-W6 OVER
4.5
LINE
5.3 (6g)
2026 AVG
63%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec yds
MARKET
3/6
W1-W6 OVER
39.5
LINE
45.0 (6g)
2026 AVG
66%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
5/6
TDS/GAMES
57%
MODEL
5/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR1
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET · Rec 69→153 ↑ 122%
ACTIVE
Injury: — St. Brown had his quietest game of the season in Week 3 (4 catches, 19 yards) despite tying Gibbs for the team target lead — but he still salvaged a TD. His target share dipped to 8 after 13-14 in the first two weeks; the Week 2 explosion (142 yards) shows the ceiling. Targets 14 → 13 → 8 → 11 (down).Rec yds: 67 → 142 → 19 → 75.Rec TDs: 2 → 2 → 1 → 0.
Rec yds
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
79.5
LINE
87.5 (6g)
2026 AVG
69%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
4/6
W1-W6 OVER
7
LINE
7.7 (6g)
2026 AVG
56%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
3/6
TDS/GAMES
45%
MODEL
3/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Isaac TeSlaa
WR2
Isaac TeSlaa
DET · Rec 0→10 → 0%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Detroit's third receiver is trending up — 3 catches for 66 yards on a perfect 3 targets in Week 3, playing 48% of snaps. He has gone from 1 target in Week 1 to a steady rotational role with big-play output (22 YPC in Week 3). Targets 1 → 5 → 3 → 8.Rec yds: 0 → 26 → 66 → 95. Rising.
Rec yds
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
27
LINE
32.8 (6g)
2026 AVG
66%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
3/6
W1-W6 OVER
1.5
LINE
1.7 (6g)
2026 AVG
51%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
0/6
TDS/GAMES
24%
MODEL
0/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Jameson Williams
WR3
Jameson Williams
DET · Rec 47→91 ↑ 94%
ACTIVE
Injury: — Williams caught all 4 of his targets for 49 yards in Week 3, continuing a steady-if-unspectacular role (4-9 targets weekly). He has yet to score in 2026 and has watched Gibbs and St. Brown dominate Detroit's offense, per ESPN notes. Targets 9 → 4 → 4 → 8.Rec yds: 45 → 33 → 49 → 102. Steady but modest.
Rec yds
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
51.5
LINE
61.2 (6g)
2026 AVG
70%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
4/6
W1-W6 OVER
3.5
LINE
3.8 (6g)
2026 AVG
56%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/6
TDS/GAMES
37%
MODEL
1/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Sam LaPorta
TE1
Sam LaPorta
DET · Rec 88→18 ↓ 80%
ACTIVE
Injury: — LaPorta's targets dipped to 4 in Week 3 (from 7-8), his quietest outing, though he still managed 44 yards. He remains a fixture (19 targets through 3 weeks) but the Week 3 volume dip is worth monitoring. Targets 8 → 7 → 4 → 13 (down).Rec yds: 48 → 52 → 44 → 84.Rec TDs: 0 → 1 → 0 → 1.
Rec yds
MARKET
3/6
W1-W6 OVER
51.5
LINE
55.7 (6g)
2026 AVG
66%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
4/6
W1-W6 OVER
4.5
LINE
4.7 (6g)
2026 AVG
56%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
3/6
TDS/GAMES
37%
MODEL
3/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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