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NE
NE
Sun Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
MIA
MIA
▶ Watch Game Simulation
LAST 5
L
W
L
W
W
LAST 5
L
L
L
L
L
Market & Matchup
SPREAD
NE -7.5
MIA +7.5 · DraftKings
TOTAL
44.5
Over / Under
MONEYLINE
NE -395
MIA +310
MODEL
Sim projects NE 24.0 - MIA 21.5 - NE wins it 57% of sims, agreeing with the market favorite.
MONEY
The spread money is split from the tickets: 42% of spread money is on MIA - on just 29% of tickets.
RECORD
NE has not been a away favorite yet in 2026 (4-3-0 in the role since 2023); MIA is 1-1-0 ATS as a home underdog in 2026 (4-3-0 in the role since 2023).
Where the money is · one bar, tickets vs money
Spread · NE -7.5
NE 71%
MIA 29%
TICKETS
NE 58%
MIA 42%
MONEY
Total · 44.5
OVER 70%
UNDER 30%
TICKETS
OVER 75%
UNDER 25%
MONEY
Moneyline
NE 96%
MIA 4%
TICKETS
NE 94%
MIA 6%
MONEY
Key injuries
New England Patriots
Drake MayeQBACTIVE
DeMario DouglasWRACTIVE
Hunter HenryTEACTIVE
Miami Dolphins
Malik WillisQBACTIVE
Ollie Gordon IIRBACTIVE
Chris BellWRACTIVE
Malik WashingtonWRACTIVE
Greg DulcichTEACTIVE
Top props in this game · model edge
Drake Maye QB · NE
Over 0.5 pass int
Over in 5/7 games (avg 1.1)
71%
MODEL
Malik Willis QB · MIA
Over 185.5 pass yds
Over in 4/6 games (avg 176.2) - NE allows 201.6 pass yards a game to QBs (#4)
63%
MODEL
DeMario Douglas WR · NE
Over 29.5 rec yds
Over in 3/7 games (avg 36.6) - MIA allows 122.5 receiving yards a game to WRs (#5)
62%
MODEL
Hunter Henry TE · NE
Over 3.5 rec
Over in 2/7 games (avg 3.0) - MIA allows 6.8 receptions a game to TEs (#30)
62%
MODEL
No player on this page is out, so nobody had to be excluded from this strip.
Situational records · ATS
NE · away favorite today
ATS - all games (2026)3-3-1
ATS - as away favorite (2026)—
ATS - as away favorite ('23-'25)4-3-0
Totals - over/under (2026)4-3-0
MIA · home underdog today
ATS - all games (2026)3-3-0
ATS - as home underdog (2026)1-1-0
ATS - as home underdog ('23-'25)4-3-0
Totals - over/under (2026)3-3-0
Matchup edges · 2026 season ranks
NE ball vs MIA defense

The crack: 74.8 TE yards a game (#30) and 101.2 rush yards a game (#22).

The wall: 122.5 WR yards a game (#5) and 235.6 QB yards a game (#20).

MIA ball vs NE defense

The crack: 130.8 WR yards a game (#10) and 86.6 rush yards a game (#8).

The wall: 201.6 QB yards a game (#4) and 40.7 TE yards a game (#6).

Line: DraftKings via ESPN · Splits: Action Network · Records: TeamRankings (2026 season + 2023-2025 sums; All Games rows include playoffs) · Model: 10,000-game simulation · Injuries: Tuesday report NE away favorite multi-year sum covers 2023 and 2025 only - no such games in 2024.
Defensive Matchup Ratings
MIA defense
faces NE
vs QB
#22
#20 235.6 yds/gm
#24 1.73 td/gm
vs RB
#20
#22 101.2 yds/gm
#18 0.73 td/gm
vs WR
#8
#5 122.5 yds/gm
#11 10.3 rec/gm
vs TE
#30
#30 74.8 yds/gm
#30 6.8 rec/gm
NE defense
faces MIA
vs QB
#8
#4 201.6 yds/gm
#11 1.33 td/gm
vs RB
#11
#8 86.6 yds/gm
#14 0.65 td/gm
vs WR
#16
#10 130.8 yds/gm
#21 11.4 rec/gm
vs TE
#8
#6 40.7 yds/gm
#9 4.5 rec/gm
Player Board
TEAM POS
SORT
Streak badges = consecutive games clearing ▲ over or missing ▼ under the line
Drake Maye
QB1
Drake Maye
NE · Pass 235→321 ↑ 37%
ACTIVE
Maye threw multiple picks for the second time in three weeks and has 0 passing TDs since Week 1, though his Week 3 yardage (199) was his second-best of the season. His 2025 games vs Buffalo were a split: a clean 273-yard outing in October, then a rough 155-yard, 1-INT game in December where his two rushing TDs salvaged the day. Pass attempts W1→W3: 33 → 22 → 25 → 37.Pass yds: 178 → 208 → 199 → 269. TD:INT: 1:3 → 0:1...
Pass yds
MARKET
4/7
W1-W6 OVER
230.5
LINE
4▲ straight
254.9 (7g)
2026 AVG
54%
EDGE
GAMES
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Pass TD
MARKET
4/7
W1-W6 OVER
1.5
LINE
4▲ straight
1.9 (7g)
2026 AVG
65%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rush yds
MARKET
2/7
W1-W6 OVER
27.5
LINE
3▼ straight
30.1 (7g)
2026 AVG
53%
EDGE
GAMES
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Pass INT
MARKET
5/7
W1-W6 OVER
0.5
LINE
1.1 (7g)
2026 AVG
71%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
-
TDS/GAMES
—
MODEL
-
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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DeMario Douglas
WR1
DeMario Douglas
NE · Rec 86→23 ↓ 73%
ACTIVE
Douglas saw his targets rebound to 5 in Week 3 but caught just one ball (38 yards). His history vs Buffalo is thin — 5 total catches across the last three meetings, with his best line (3/34) coming in the January 2025 game. Targets W1→W3: 7 → 2 → 5.Rec yds: 20 → 9 → 38 → 15. Catch rate a concern: 1 catch on 5 targets in Week 3.
Rec yds
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
29.5
LINE
36.6 (7g)
2026 AVG
62%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
3.5
LINE
3.0 (7g)
2026 AVG
51%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/7
TDS/GAMES
22%
MODEL
1/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Hunter Henry
TE1
Hunter Henry
NE · Rec 48→71 ↑ 48%
ACTIVE
Henry's Week 3 was his worst of the season — 1 catch for 5 yards on just 2 targets after a 3/40 Week 2. His two 2025 games vs Buffalo were modest (46 and 18 yards), and he has yet to score in 2026. Targets W1→W3: 3 → 5 → 2.Rec yds: 26 → 40 → 5 → 62. Scoreless in 2026.
Rec yds
MARKET
5/7
W1-W6 OVER
39.5
LINE
4▲ straight
42.3 (7g)
2026 AVG
60%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
2/7
W1-W6 OVER
3.5
LINE
3.0 (7g)
2026 AVG
62%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
2/7
TDS/GAMES
24%
MODEL
2/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Malik Willis
QB1
Malik Willis
MIA · Pass 137→208 ↑ 52%
ACTIVE
Willis led the Dolphins in rushing (56 yards) in Week 3 after Achane exited in the first quarter, per ESPN. His passing has been steady but low-ceiling — 197–220 yards each week with 1 total TD pass against 1 INT through three games. pass attempts 27 → 23 → 36 → 17;pass yds 220 → 197 → 210 → 85;pass TDs 0 → 1 → 0 → 0;rush yds 39 → 6 → 56 → 11.
Pass yds
MARKET
4/6
W1-W6 OVER
185.5
LINE
176.2 (6g)
2026 AVG
63%
EDGE
GAMES
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Pass TD
MARKET
-
W1-W6 OVER
0.5
LINE
-
2026 AVG
—
EDGE
GAMES
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Rush yds
MARKET
-
W1-W6 OVER
34.5
LINE
-
2026 AVG
—
EDGE
GAMES
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Pass INT
MARKET
-
W1-W6 OVER
0.5
LINE
-
2026 AVG
—
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
-
TDS/GAMES
—
MODEL
-
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Ollie Gordon II
RB1
Ollie Gordon II
MIA · → 0%
ACTIVE
Gordon "capitalized on his added opportunities" after Achane's first-quarter exit, per ESPN, handling 17 carries and scoring the TD — he is effectively Miami's lead back with Achane on IR (torn ACL) and Jaylen Wright Questionable. Efficiency was poor (2.4 ypc), but the volume role is new. (Note: Sleeper's feed lists Gordon as DNP all three weeks — the ESPN Week 3 box score is authoritative here.) carries DNP → DNP →...
Anytime TD
MARKET
4/6
TDS/GAMES
45%
MODEL
4/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Chris Bell
WR1
Chris Bell
MIA · → 0%
ACTIVE
Bell's role spiked in Week 3 with Caleb Douglas (ankle) inactive, per ESPN — his 7 targets and 67 yards were both season highs after barely playing the first two weeks. Douglas is Questionable but the team is "seemingly optimistic," so Bell's role could shrink if Douglas returns. targets 2 → 1 → 7 → 3;receptions 1 → 0 → 4 → 0;rec yds 25 → 0 → 67 → 0.
Anytime TD
MARKET
0/6
TDS/GAMES
18%
MODEL
0/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Malik Washington
WR2
Malik Washington
MIA · → 0%
ACTIVE
Washington "became the focal point of the offense" following Achane's season-ending injury, per ESPN, drawing a team-high 10 targets in Week 3. He leads all Dolphins wideouts in targets in every week so far (8/5/10). targets 8 → 5 → 10 → 5;receptions 3 → 4 → 5 → 5;rec yds 53 → 43 → 56 → 67.
Anytime TD
MARKET
0/6
TDS/GAMES
25%
MODEL
0/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Greg Dulcich
TE1
Greg Dulcich
MIA · → 0%
ACTIVE
Dulcich had "far and away his best performance of the season" in Week 3 with 7 targets, per ESPN — more than his first two weeks combined. He is the clear TE1 with his target share trending sharply up. targets 2 → 3 → 7; receptions 2 → 2 → 5; rec yds 18 → 17 → 55.
Anytime TD
MARKET
0/5
TDS/GAMES
20%
MODEL
0/5
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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