How this sim works. The pregame win probability is the Propedia model's number for this matchup (10,000-simulation model, the same one behind the Projected Winners board). Player usage is real: target shares, carry shares, completion percentage, interception rate and yards-per-play come from this season's player data (last season's baseline for players without a current-season sample). Matchup tilts come from yards allowed by position. Team scoring levels are calibrated to the model's projected points for the matchup, and turnover rates are regressed toward league average (small samples are noisy). Each play is then generated from those inputs, and the win probability bar updates on every play from the score, clock and possession, snapping to 100/0 at the final. The game you watch is one of the most typical complete games from a batch of simulations - closest to the median score among games the model's pick wins - so it lines up with the model's central expectation rather than being one random draw; individual simulations in the batch vary around it, and New Sim shows another typical game from the same batch. The field is styled after the home team: their colours in both end zones, their wordmarks, and their logo at midfield.