FINAL: TB 24 DAL 16FINAL: PHI 17 JAX 19FINAL: SF 32 SEA 29FINAL: BAL 30 ATL 23BUF @ LAR · Mon 8:15 PMFINAL: TB 24 DAL 16FINAL: PHI 17 JAX 19FINAL: SF 32 SEA 29FINAL: BAL 30 ATL 23BUF @ LAR · Mon 8:15 PM

NFL Trends Board

Week 9 - every card must earn its place: hit-rate signals first, the Propedia sim as the fourth signal. Board numbers are computed from the real Propedia game logs, play-by-play and this week's lines.
★ GOLD - Recent Form + Head to Head + Venue Split all hit, sim printed as the fourth check SILVER - 2 of 3 signals + sim agrees Sample gate - H2H under 2 games never counts quietly: it is flagged THIN or left off Junk-line guard - no 0.5 / 1.5 volume props (a back averaging 1 target is not a trend)
GAME
MARKET
TIER
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR - SEA
★ GOLD - 3 SIGNALS
ARI @ SEA - Week 9
Over 0.5 Anytime TD -110
⚡Recent FormHit in 6 of last 10 games60%
🛡Head to HeadHit in 4 of last 6 games vs ARI67%
📍Home SplitHit in 4 of last 5 home games80%
◆Propedia SimModel clears this line in 48% of 10,000 sims48%
Tap for proof log, averages and game context
Zach CharbonnetRB - SEA
★ GOLD - 3 SIGNALS
ARI @ SEA - Week 9
Over 0.5 Anytime TD
⚡Recent FormHit in 5 of last 8 games62%
🛡Head to HeadHit in 3 of last 5 games vs ARI60%
📍Home SplitHit in 2 of last 4 home games50%
◆Propedia SimModel clears this line in 42% of 10,000 sims42%
Tap for proof log, averages and game context
Tyler AllgeierRB - ARI
★ GOLD - 3 SIGNALS
ARI @ SEA - Week 9
Over 6.5 Rec yds
⚡Recent FormHit in 8 of last 10 games80%
🛡Head to HeadHit in 1 of last 1 games vs SEA THIN n=1100%
📍Away SplitHit in 6 of last 9 away games67%
◆Propedia SimModel clears this line in 79% of 10,000 sims79%
Tap for proof log, averages and game context
AJ BarnerTE - SEA
★ GOLD - 3 SIGNALS
ARI @ SEA - Week 9
Under 29.5 Rec yds
⚡Recent FormHit in 7 of last 10 games70%
🛡Head to HeadHit in 1 of last 1 games vs ARI THIN n=1100%
📍Home SplitHit in 7 of last 10 home games70%
◆Propedia SimModel clears this line in 68% of 10,000 sims68%
Tap for proof log, averages and game context
Brian Thomas Jr.WR - JAX
SILVER - 2 SIGNALS + SIM
JAX @ BAL - Week 9
Over 14.5 Rec yds
⚡Recent FormHit in 8 of last 10 games80%
🛡Head to HeadNo H2H sample on record - not counted-
📍Away SplitHit in 5 of last 5 away games100%
◆Propedia SimModel clears this line in 72% of 10,000 sims72%
Tap for proof log, averages and game context
Baker MayfieldQB - TB
SILVER - 2 SIGNALS + SIM
TB @ CHI - Week 9
Under 220.5 Pass yds
⚡Recent FormHit in 8 of last 10 games80%
🛡Head to HeadNo H2H sample on record - not counted-
📍Away SplitHit in 4 of last 5 away games80%
◆Propedia SimModel clears this line in 80% of 10,000 sims80%
Tap for proof log, averages and game context
Ollie Gordon IIRB - MIA
SILVER - 2 SIGNALS + SIM
DET @ MIA - Week 9
Under 13.5 Rec yds
⚡Recent FormHit in 9 of last 10 games90%
🛡Head to HeadNo H2H sample on record - not counted-
📍Home SplitHit in 5 of last 6 home games83%
◆Propedia SimModel clears this line in 62% of 10,000 sims62%
Tap for proof log, averages and game context
Aaron JonesRB - MIN
SILVER - 2 SIGNALS + SIM
BUF @ MIN - Week 9
Over 29.5 Rush yds
⚡Recent FormHit in 8 of last 10 games80%
🛡Head to HeadNo H2H sample on record - not counted-
📍Home SplitHit in 4 of last 5 home games80%
◆Propedia SimModel clears this line in 75% of 10,000 sims75%
Tap for proof log, averages and game context
Darren WallerTE - CAR
1Q - NEW CATEGORY
DEN @ CAR - Week 9
Under 0.5 1Q Rec Yards
⚡Recent Form0 first-quarter rec yards in 7 of 7 games (2026)100%
🛡Head to Head1Q H2H samples too thin - not counted-
📍Venue Split1Q venue splits too thin - not counted-
0 Q1 rec yds in 7 of 7 games in 2026 - 0.5 line is illustrative, 1Q player lines are not on PropLine yet
Tap for proof log, averages and game context
Darnell MooneyWR - NYG
1Q - NEW CATEGORY
NYG @ PHI - Week 9
Under 0.5 1Q Rec Yards
⚡Recent Form0 first-quarter rec yards in 7 of 7 games (2026)100%
🛡Head to Head1Q H2H samples too thin - not counted-
📍Venue Split1Q venue splits too thin - not counted-
0 Q1 rec yds in 7 of 7 games in 2026 - 0.5 line is illustrative, 1Q player lines are not on PropLine yet
Tap for proof log, averages and game context

How this differs from Linemate: their board counts a 1-of-1 head to head as 100% and farms tiny DFS lines. Here the sample is printed on every signal, thin samples are flagged, lines are this week's real Propedia lines, and the sim gets a veto vote as the fourth signal. 1Q lines are shown as a category concept only - the 0.5 line is illustrative until a book posts 1Q player props we can pull.