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BAL
BAL
Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
BUF
BUF
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LAST 5
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LAST 5
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Market & Matchup
SPREAD
BUF -3.5
BAL +3.5 · DraftKings
TOTAL
53.5
Over / Under
MONEYLINE
BUF -185
BAL +154
MODEL
Sim projects BAL 19.9 - BUF 25.6 - BUF wins it 66% of sims, agreeing with the market favorite.
MONEY
The spread money is split from the tickets: 52% of spread money is on BAL - on just 40% of tickets.
RECORD
BUF is 2-1-0 ATS as a home favorite in 2026 (13-13-0 in the role since 2023); BAL is 1-0-0 ATS as an away underdog in 2026 (3-1-0 in the role since 2023).
Where the money is · one bar, tickets vs money
Spread · BUF -3.5
BAL 40%
BUF 60%
TICKETS
BAL 52%
BUF 48%
MONEY
Total · 53.5
OVER 27%
UNDER 73%
TICKETS
OVER 67%
UNDER 33%
MONEY
Moneyline
BAL 10%
BUF 90%
TICKETS
BAL 5%
BUF 95%
MONEY
Key injuries
Baltimore Ravens
Derrick HenryRBACTIVE
Zay FlowersWRACTIVE
Mark AndrewsTEACTIVE
Buffalo Bills
DJ MooreWR · questionableQUES
Josh AllenQBACTIVE
Khalil ShakirWRACTIVE
Dalton KincaidTEQUES
Top props in this game · model edge
DJ Moore WR · BUF
Over 3.5 rec
Over in 2/4 games (avg 3.0) - BAL allows 13.7 receptions a game to WRs (#32)
70%
MODEL
Derrick Henry RB · BAL
Over 9.5 rec yds
Over in 3/7 games (avg 9.7)
69%
MODEL
Mark Andrews TE · BAL
Over 28.5 rec yds
Over in 2/7 games (avg 29.1) - BUF allows 39.0 receiving yards a game to TEs (#4)
66%
MODEL
Zay Flowers WR · BAL
Over 70.5 rec yds
Over in 4/6 games (avg 101.3) - BUF allows 147.8 receiving yards a game to WRs (#20)
62%
MODEL
No player on this page is out, so nobody had to be excluded from this strip.
Situational records · ATS
BAL · away underdog today
ATS - all games (2026)2-5-0
ATS - as away underdog (2026)1-0-0
ATS - as away underdog ('23-'25)3-1-0
Totals - over/under (2026)4-3-0
BUF · home favorite today
ATS - all games (2026)4-2-0
ATS - as home favorite (2026)2-1-0
ATS - as home favorite ('23-'25)13-13-0
Totals - over/under (2026)5-1-0
Matchup edges · 2026 season ranks
BAL ball vs BUF defense

The crack: 97.8 rush yards a game (#21) and 147.8 WR yards a game (#20).

The wall: 39.0 TE yards a game (#4) and 219.7 QB yards a game (#14).

BUF ball vs BAL defense

The crack: 175.8 WR yards a game (#31) and 244.1 QB yards a game (#24).

The wall: 40.3 TE yards a game (#5) and 78.6 rush yards a game (#7).

Line: DraftKings via ESPN · Splits: Action Network · Records: TeamRankings (2026 season + 2023-2025 sums; All Games rows include playoffs) · Model: 10,000-game simulation · Injuries: Tuesday report
Defensive Matchup Ratings
BUF defense
faces BAL
vs QB
#20
#14 219.7 yds/gm
#27 1.83 td/gm
vs RB
#24
#21 97.8 yds/gm
#26 0.87 td/gm
vs WR
#20
#20 147.8 yds/gm
#19 11.3 rec/gm
vs TE
#3
#4 39.0 yds/gm
#2 3.9 rec/gm
BAL defense
faces BUF
vs QB
#14
#24 244.1 yds/gm
#5 1.13 td/gm
vs RB
#14
#7 78.6 yds/gm
#22 0.81 td/gm
vs WR
#32
#31 175.8 yds/gm
#32 13.7 rec/gm
vs TE
#4
#5 40.3 yds/gm
#4 4.2 rec/gm
Player Board
TEAM POS
SORT
Streak badges = consecutive games clearing ▲ over or missing ▼ under the line
Derrick Henry
RB1
Derrick Henry
BAL · Rush 58→45 ↓ 22%
ACTIVE
Injury: QUESTIONABLE Henry bounced back to 26 carries and 2 TDs (4- and 3-yard scores) in the Week 3 win over Dallas after a quieter Week 2. He has scored in all three games this season (6 total rush TDs). carries 24 → 16 → 26 → 23;rush yds 144 → 68 → 89 → 73;rush TDs 3 → 1 → 2 → 1.
Rush yds
MARKET
4/7
W1-W6 OVER
71.5
LINE
82.7 (7g)
2026 AVG
61%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec yds
MARKET
3/7
W1-W6 OVER
9.5
LINE
9.7 (7g)
2026 AVG
69%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
5/7
TDS/GAMES
65%
MODEL
5/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Zay Flowers
WR1
Zay Flowers
BAL · Rec 66→137 ↑ 108%
ACTIVE
Flowers returned from his Week 2 absence and immediately posted 5/84, but his workload was limited — he played only 21 snaps in Week 3, per ESPN. Efficiency was strong (16.8 yds/catch), so snap count is the thing to monitor. targets 6 → DNP → 6; receptions 5 → DNP → 5; rec yds 150 → DNP → 84.
Rec yds
MARKET
4/6
W1-W6 OVER
70.5
LINE
101.3 (6g)
2026 AVG
62%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
3/6
TDS/GAMES
36%
MODEL
3/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Mark Andrews
TE1
Mark Andrews
BAL · Rec 4→23 ↑ 475%
ACTIVE
Injury: QUESTIONABLE Andrews was limited by a hand injury suffered in the second quarter and played only 33 snaps in Week 3, per ESPN — his 24 yards were a season low. His status bears watching, though he remains listed Active. targets 6 → 7 → 5 → 6;receptions 4 → 6 → 3 → 5;rec yds 49 → 49 → 24 → 27.
Rec yds
MARKET
2/7
W1-W6 OVER
28.5
LINE
5▼ straight
29.1 (7g)
2026 AVG
66%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/7
TDS/GAMES
20%
MODEL
1/7
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Josh Allen
QB1
Josh Allen
BUF · Pass 210→255 ↑ 21%
ACTIVE
Allen's passing has been volatile - from 334 yards in Week 1 to 204 with 2 INTs in Week 3, then 253 in Week 4 - but his rushing TDs keep the floor intact. He is Questionable after taking a late hit in Pass attempts W1→W3: 29 → 31 → 26 → 33.Pass yds: 334 → 248 → 204 → 253. TD:INT: 2:0 → 3:0 → 0:2.Rush yds: 23 → 69 → 22 → 4. Rushing TDs: 2 in each of Weeks 1–3 (6 total).
Pass yds
MARKET
4/6
W1-W6 OVER
246
LINE
250.7 (6g)
2026 AVG
51%
EDGE
GAMES
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Pass INT
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
0.5
LINE
0.5 (6g)
2026 AVG
54%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
5/6
TDS/GAMES
20%
MODEL
5/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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James Cook
RB1
James Cook
BUF · Rush 111→95 ↓ 14%
ACTIVE
Cook has been Buffalo's workhorse with career-level volume — carries and yards up three straight weeks, 154 yards in Week 3. His receiving role is fading (1 target), but he owns this matchup: 107 rushing yards and 3 total TDs vs New England last December. Carries W1→W3: 13 → 21 → 24.Rush yds: 57 → 135 → 154 → 75.Rush TDs: 0 → 1 → 1 → 1.Targets: 4 → 3 → 1 → 2 (receiving role shrinking).
Rush yds
MARKET
4/6
W1-W6 OVER
87.5
LINE
104.5 (6g)
2026 AVG
58%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
1.5
LINE
1.3 (6g)
2026 AVG
54%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec yds
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
9.5
LINE
14.8 (6g)
2026 AVG
52%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
5/6
TDS/GAMES
54%
MODEL
5/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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DJ Moore
WR1
DJ Moore
BUF · Rec 67→11 ↓ 84%
QUESTIONABLE
Injury: — Moore bounced back from his Week 2 shoulder exit with a team-high 10 targets for 67 yards in Week 3. His only full game as a Bill (Week 1) was a 5/100/1 line. He has no 2024–2026 history against New England. Targets W1→W3: 8 → DNP (shoulder, exited early) → 10.Rec yds: 100 → 0 → 67 → 11. One TD (Week 1).
Rec yds
MARKET
2/4
W1-W6 OVER
51.5
LINE
44.5 (4g)
2026 AVG
62%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
2/4
W1-W6 OVER
3.5
LINE
3.0 (4g)
2026 AVG
70%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/4
TDS/GAMES
27%
MODEL
1/4
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Khalil Shakir
WR2
Khalil Shakir
BUF · Rec 80→34 ↓ 57%
ACTIVE
Injury: QUESTIONABLE Shakir's Week 3 was a dud — 1 catch for 6 yards on 3 targets after steady 6-target weeks to open the season. He has a decent baseline vs New England (5 and 6 catches in the two 2025 meetings), but the Week 3 usage dip is a red flag. Targets W1→W3: 6 → 6 → 3.Rec yds: 50 → 38 → 6 → 82. Scoreless in 2026.
Rec yds
MARKET
3/6
W1-W6 OVER
40.5
LINE
48.3 (6g)
2026 AVG
61%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
0/6
W1-W6 OVER
4.5
LINE
7▼ straight
2.5 (6g)
2026 AVG
54%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/6
TDS/GAMES
22%
MODEL
1/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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Dalton Kincaid
TE1
Dalton Kincaid
BUF · Rec 7→38 ↑ 443%
QUESTIONABLE
Kincaid's role collapsed in Week 3 — 3 targets and 38 yards after 8 targets and 95 yards in Week 2. His October 2025 game vs New England (6/108) shows the ceiling, but the Week 3 usage is his lowest of the season. Targets W1→W3: 6 → 8 → 3.Rec yds: 130 → 95 → 38 → 7. One TD (Week 2).
Rec yds
MARKET
2/6
W1-W6 OVER
40.5
LINE
4▼ straight
52.5 (6g)
2026 AVG
58%
EDGE
GAMES
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Rec
MARKET
3/6
W1-W6 OVER
4.5
LINE
3.7 (6g)
2026 AVG
51%
EDGE
GAMES
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Anytime TD
MARKET
1/6
TDS/GAMES
25%
MODEL
1/6
2026 TD
25
EDGE
GAMES
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